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European Bond Research – December 17, 2019

Posted on December 17, 2019
December 17, 2019

Bond Markets

STOCKS ARE UNCHANGED TO DOWN. THE TARIFF AND BREXIT BOUNCE HAS PASSED AND NOW THE WORLD IS ASKING “NOW WHAT?” FTSE 100 +0.08%, German DAX -0.89%, CAC 40 -0.39%, STOXX Europe 600 -0.68%.  The 10-year Gilt lost 6 basis points.

BORIS JOHNSON IS STICKING TO A BREXIT BY JANUARY 31ST WITH OR WITHOUT A DEAL IN PLACE. He is not allowing any ministers to attend the Davos Summit next month. (Advantage Data Inc.). Extensive corporate-bond index data showed a net daily grade increment for high-grade versus high-yield constituents. High-yield bonds edged out high-grade debt as of 3 PM, London time.  Among European high-yield bonds showing a concurrence of top price gains at appreciable volumes traded,  Deutsche Bank AG (USD) 4.5% 4/1/2025  made some analysts ‘Conviction buy’ lists. (See the chart for Deutsche Bank AG bonds below). Pierre Robert

Credit-Default Swap Market

LATEST NEWS: Top moves, sovereign tighteners (5Y): Italy 125.44  and Spain 42.79. Sovereign wideners (5Y):  Finland 9.84 and Portugal 37.60.

New Issuance

New Issues New Issues [Continued]

(None Current 12/17/2019)

ADI Indexes


iShares Core EUR UCITS iShares Euro High Yield UCITS
NAV as of 12/17/2019, 134.62 NAV as of 12/17/2019, 105.32
Daily NAV Change (%) -0.04% Daily NAV Change (%) -0.06%

The euro-zone economy shows signs of negative momentum, weakening credit rating quality, and uncertainty regarding the outcome of Brexit. Closely watched indicators and rates:

  • Eurostat’s unemployment ratecurrently 7.5% (seasonally adjusted, May 2019)
  • Eurostat’s quarterly GDP: 0.4% (2019 Q1)
  • 6-month Euribor: current value –0.34%, as of 12/16/2019

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