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European Bond Research – December 20, 2019

Posted on December 20, 2019
December 20, 2019

Bond Markets

BREXIT OFFICIALLY PASSES THAT JANUARY 31, 2020 WILL BE THE OFFICIAL EXIT DATE.  FTSE 100 +0.11%, German DAX +0.81%, CAC 40 +0.82%, STOXX Europe 600 +0.80%.  The 10-year Gilt lost 1.8 basis points.

BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS WITH EU WILL BEGIN JUNE 30 2020 WITH A RATIFICATION BY DECEMBER 31 2020 RATIFICATION. MANY VERY SKEPTICAL ABOUT TIME LINE.  (Advantage Data Inc.). Extensive corporate-bond index data showed a net daily grade increment for high-grade versus high-yield constituents. High-yield bonds edged out high-grade debt as of 3 PM, London time.  Among European high-yield bonds showing a concurrence of top price gains at appreciable volumes traded,  Deutsche Bank AG (USD) 4.5% 4/1/2025  made some analysts ‘Conviction buy’ lists. (See the chart for Deutsche Bank AG bonds below). Pierre Robert

Credit-Default Swap Market

LATEST NEWS: Top moves, sovereign tighteners (5Y): Italy 119.38  and Spain 40.81. Sovereign wideners (5Y):  Finland 9.56 and Ireland 21.23.

New Issuance

New Issues New Issues [Continued]

(None Current 12/20/2019)

ADI Indexes


iShares Core EUR UCITS iShares Euro High Yield UCITS
NAV as of 12/20/2019, 134.61 NAV as of 12/20/2019, 105.56
Daily NAV Change (%) +0.12% Daily NAV Change (%) +0.10%

The euro-zone economy shows signs of negative momentum, weakening credit rating quality, and uncertainty regarding the outcome of Brexit. Closely watched indicators and rates:

  • Eurostat’s unemployment ratecurrently 7.5% (seasonally adjusted, May 2019)
  • Eurostat’s quarterly GDP: 0.4% (2019 Q1)
  • 6-month Euribor: current value –0.342%, as of 12/19/2019

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