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European Bond Research – December 9, 2019

Posted on December 9, 2019
December 9, 2019

Bond Markets

FRIDAY’S PAYROLL SURGE GAVE WAY TO CAUTIOUS INVESTORS. Coming week is full of important information that could reveal the real state of the economy. Weak China export data knocked stocks down today.  FTSE 100 -0.08%, German DAX -0.46%, CAC 40 -0.59%, STOXX Europe 600 -0.24%.  The 10-year Gilt LOST 0.6 basis points.

THE POUND EDGED HIGHER AS THE CONSERVATIVES LOOK POISED TO WIN THE DECEMBER ELECTION.  (Advantage Data Inc.). Extensive corporate-bond index data showed a net daily grade increment for high-grade versus high-yield constituents. High-yield bonds edged out high-grade debt as of 3 PM, London time.  Among European high-yield bonds showing a concurrence of top price gains at appreciable volumes traded,  ArcelorMittal SA (USD) 6.75% 3/1/2041  made some analysts ‘Conviction buy’ lists. (See the chart for ArcelorMittal SA bonds below). Pierre Robert

Credit-Default Swap Market

LATEST NEWS: Top moves, sovereign tighteners (5Y): Italy 133.77  and Spain 40.92. Sovereign wideners (5Y):  Finland 10.32 and Portugal 38.19.

New Issuance

New Issues New Issues [Continued]
1. Sagax AB (SEK) FLT% 6/16/2023 (12/09/2019): 500MM Senior Unsecured Notes.

2. JAB Holdings BV (EUR) 1% 12/20/2027 (12/09/2019): 750MM Senior Unsecured Notes.

3. JAB Holdings BV (EUR) 2.25% 12/19/2039 (12/09/2019): 750MM Senior Unsecured Notes.

ADI Indexes


iShares Core EUR UCITS iShares Euro High Yield UCITS
NAV as of 12/09/2019, 134.2 NAV as of 12/09/2019, 104.72
Daily NAV Change (%) +0.05% Daily NAV Change (%) +0.09%

The euro-zone economy shows signs of negative momentum, weakening credit rating quality, and uncertainty regarding the outcome of Brexit. Closely watched indicators and rates:

  • Eurostat’s unemployment ratecurrently 7.5% (seasonally adjusted, May 2019)
  • Eurostat’s quarterly GDP: 0.4% (2019 Q1)
  • 6-month Euribor: current value –0.333%, as of 12/06/2019

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