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North American Bond Research – March 9, 2020

Posted on March 9, 2020
HIGH YIELD BOND RESEARCH
March 9, 2020
Bond Markets

MARKETS PLUNGED AFTER SAUDI ARABIA AND RUSSIA’S OIL WAR COMMENCED. THE ONGOING CORONA VIRUS HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE THE MARKET.  10 Year Treasury notes were down 22 basis points.  S&P -7.6%, Dow -7.79%, NASDAQ  -7.29%.
CORONA VIRUS UPDATE: CHINA TO DATE HAS HAD 105000+ CASES AND 3600+ DEATHS. THE VIRUS SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN IN CHINA AS NEW CASES AND DEATHS SEEM TO BE ACCELERATING INTERNATIONALLY.  Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, JC Penney Co Inc (USD) 7.125% 11/15/2023 made analysts’ ‘Conviction Buy’ list. (See the chart below for JC Penney Co Inc. bonds) Pierre Robert
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Washington Prime Group LP 5.95% 8/15/2024 +0.0%
  Gap Inc. 5.95% 4/12/2021 +0.5%
  Lamar Media Corp. 5% 5/1/2023 +0.9%
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (USD) 7.5% 8/15/2022 +0.0%
–   Petrobras Global Finance BV 6.85% 6/5/2115 -9.9%
  Intelsat Jackson Hldg SA 5.5% 8/1/2023 (1) -5.9%
  Diamondback Energy Inc. 3.5% 12/1/2029 -22.5%
  HCA Inc. 3.5% 9/1/2030 -2.0%
Petrobras Global Finance BV   6.85% 6/5/2115
Intelsat Jackson Hldg SA   5.5% 8/1/2023 (1)
Diamondback Energy Inc.   3.5% 12/1/2029
HCA Inc.   3.5% 9/1/2030
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.61% -0.13% -1.02% 1.49% 0.18% 14.29%
Mining -1.93% -1.89% -7.91% -5.66% -9.43% -5.06%
Construction -0.21% 0.38% 0.17% 2.25% 1.64% 12.73%
Manufacturing -0.47% 0.14% -0.64% 1.68% 0.53% 9.65%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.43% 0.33% 0.25% 2.94% 1.47% 12.02%
Wholesale -0.40% 0.04% -2.06% 0.90% -0.46% 7.19%
Retail -0.54% -0.10% -1.34% 1.49% -0.15% 10.94%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.43% 0.31% -0.50% 1.92% 0.81% 10.95%
Services -0.64% -0.01% -1.00% 1.27% 0.01% 8.88%
Public Administration 0.40% 1.49% 1.96% 4.42% 2.89% 13.45%
Energy -1.64% -1.40% -6.75% -3.84% -7.85% -3.20%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

New Issues Forward Calendar

(None Current 03/09/2020)
1. Whole Earth Brands (ACT II GLOBAL ACQUISTION CORP.):: $235 MM credit facilities: $50MM reolver; $185MM term A

2. Xperi Corp. : $1.1B seven-year secured covenant lite TLB

3. Tosca Services LLC: $325MM seven-year first-lien TL (B2/B)

4. Tata Chemicals North America Inc. : $380MM TL (Ba3)

5. Snapav: $390MM term loans: $290MM TL (B2); $100MM TL

6. Service Logic: $140MM bank debt: $40MM TL; $100MM DD TL

7. Open Lending LLC: $225MM TLB

8. Lakeview Loan Servicing LLC: $550MM TLB

9. Instructure: $825MM senior secured credit facilities: $50MM revolver; $775MM TL

10. Innovate Xcessories & Services LLC: $695MM credit facilities: $75MM revolver; $620MM TL(B2/B)

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 02/21/2020 participants welcome a $600MM new corporate-bond offering by
Mattamy Group.  The most recent data showed money flowed in of ETF/mutual funds for the week ended 01/10/2020, with a net inflow of $9.8 billion.
Top Widening Loans Top Narrowing Loans
AMC Entertainment Hldg Inc. (USD) TLB L+300 04/22/2026
Samsonite Intl. SA (USD) TLB L+175 04/19/2025
Cineworld Group PLC (USD) TLB L+300 02/07/2027
Kingpin Intermediate Holdings LLC (USD) TLB L+350 07/03/2024
ConvergeOne LLC (USD) TL L+500 01/04/2026
Verifone Inc. (USD) TL L+400 08/20/2025
CEVA Logistics Holdings BV (USD) TLB L+500 08/03/2025
Cineworld Group PLC (USD) TLB L+250 09/20/2026
Cineworld Group PLC (EUR) TLB E+262.5 02/22/2025
HotelBeds (EUR) TLB E+300 09/11/2023
MacDonald Dettwiler & Associates Ltd (USD) TLB L+275 10/05/2024
WestJet Airlines LTD (USD) TL L+300 10/08/2026
Dayco Products LLC (USD) TLB L+425 05/19/2023

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:

  • Symantec Corp., Broadcom LTD, Toll Brothers Inc., Cole-Parmer Instrument Co.

OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:

Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:

  • TED spread held below  44 bp (basis points), as of 03/09/2020
  • Net negative capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

 

INVESTMENT GRADE BOND RESEARCH
March 9, 2020
Bond Markets

MARKETS PLUNGED AFTER SAUDI ARABIA AND RUSSIA’S OIL WAR COMMENCED. THE ONGOING CORONA VIRUS HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE THE MARKET.  10 Year Treasury notes were down 22 basis points.  S&P -7.6%, Dow -7.79%, NASDAQ  -7.29%.
CORONA VIRUS UPDATE: CHINA TO DATE HAS HAD 105000+ CASES AND 3600+ DEATHS. THE VIRUS SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN IN CHINA AS NEW CASES AND DEATHS SEEM TO BE ACCELERATING INTERNATIONALLY.     (Advantage Data Inc.). Extensive corporate-bond index data showed a net daily grade increment for high-grade versus high-yield constituents. High-yield bonds edged out high-grade debt as of 3 PM, London time.  Among European high-yield bonds showing a concurrence of top price gains at appreciable volumes traded,  Bombardier Inc. (USD) 7.5% 12/1/2024 Reg S made some analysts ‘Conviction buy’ lists. (See the chart for Bombardier Inc. bonds below). Pierre Robert
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Citibank NA 3.05% 5/1/2020 +0.0%
  PNC Bank NA FLT% 7/22/2022 +0.3%
  HCA Inc. 5.25% 6/15/2049 +2.2%
–   Exxon Mobil Corp. 3.095% 8/16/2049 -8.9%
  Bank of America Corp. 2.496% 2/13/2031 -1.6%
  CVS Health Corp. 5.05% 3/25/2048 -3.8%
Exxon Mobil Corp.   3.095% 8/16/2049
Bank of America Corp.   2.496% 2/13/2031
GE Capital Intl. Funding Co.   4.418% 11/15/2035
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.11% 0.51% 1.15% 4.27% 3.36% 6.30%
Mining 0.36% 0.99% 1.88% 4.36% 3.32% 13.42%
Construction 0.41% 1.38% 2.66% 4.93% 4.61% 13.15%
Manufacturing 0.29% 1.35% 2.71% 4.91% 4.50% 14.47%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas 0.66% 1.88% 3.78% 6.66% 6.18% 19.06%
Wholesale 0.14% 1.28% 2.03% 4.53% 3.87% 15.46%
Retail 0.41% 1.52% 3.17% 5.39% 4.96% 16.42%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate 0.14% 1.03% 2.30% 4.12% 3.77% 12.04%
Services 0.27% 1.40% 2.89% 4.98% 4.62% 13.69%
Public Administration 0.20% 1.12% 2.19% 3.11% 2.99% 6.64%
Energy 0.32% 0.88% 1.84% 4.40% 3.17% 13.63%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

New Issues New Issues [Continued]

(None Current 03/09/2020)
Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 03/06/2020 participants welcome a $700MM new corporate-bond offering by Key BankThe most recent data showed money flowed in of ETF/mutual funds for the week ended 01/10/2020, with a net inflow of $9.8 billion.
Top Widening Loans Top Narrowing Loans
AMC Entertainment Hldg Inc. (USD) TLB L+300 04/22/2026
Samsonite Intl. SA (USD) TLB L+175 04/19/2025
Cineworld Group PLC (USD) TLB L+300 02/07/2027
Kingpin Intermediate Holdings LLC (USD) TLB L+350 07/03/2024
ConvergeOne LLC (USD) TL L+500 01/04/2026
Cineworld Group PLC (USD) TLB L+250 09/20/2026
HotelBeds (EUR) TLB E+300 09/11/2023
MacDonald Dettwiler & Associates Ltd (USD) TLB L+275 10/05/2024
WestJet Airlines LTD (USD) TL L+300 10/08/2026
Dayco Products LLC (USD) TLB L+425 05/19/2023

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:

  • Symantec Corp., Broadcom LTD, Toll Brothers Inc., Cole-Parmer Instrument Co.

OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:

Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:

  • TED spread held below 44 bp (basis points), as of 03/09/2020
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

Copyright 2019 Advantage Data Inc. All Rights Reserved. http://www.advantagedata.com

Information in this document should not be regarded as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy bonds or any financial instruments referred to herein. All information provided in this document is believed to be accurate. However, Advantage Data and its sources make no warranties, either express or implied, as to any matter whatsoever, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. Electronic redistribution, photocopying and any other electronic or mechanical reproduction is strictly prohibited without prior written permission from Advantage Data Inc.

 


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