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North American Bond Research – May 5, 2020

Posted on May 5, 2020
HIGH YIELD BOND RESEARCH
May 5, 2020
Bond Markets

STOCKS ARE UP AS STATES AND COUNTRIES OPEN UP. OIL UP TO 24.5 A BARREL. AMEX AND SEVERAL OIL COMPANIES EXPECTED TO RELEASE EARNINGS TODAY.  FTSE 100 +1.66%, 10 Year Treasury notes were up 2 basis points. S&P +0.9%, Dow +0.56%, NASDAQ +1.13%.
CORONA VIRUS UPDATE: GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS TO DATE HAS HAD 3.7 MILLION+ CASES AND 258000+ DEATHS. IN THE UNITED STATES THE CORONAVIRUS COUNT IS 1.23 MILLION+ CASES AND 72000+ DEATHS.  Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Ferrellgas Partners LP (USD) 8.625% 6/15/2020 made analysts’ ‘Conviction Buy’ list. (See the chart below for Ferrellgas Partners LP bonds) Pierre Robert
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   General Motors Co. 5.2% 4/1/2045 +0.7%
  Occidental Petroleum Corp. 2.7% 8/15/2022 +4.5%
  Ford Motor Co. 9% 4/22/2025 +1.8%
  Occidental Petroleum Corp. 2.9% 8/15/2024 +5.1%
  Sabine Pass Liquefaction LLC 5.625% 3/1/2025 +0.2%
–   Micron Technology Inc. 4.663% 2/15/2030 -0.4%
  Ally Financial Inc. 4.25% 4/15/2021 -0.1%
  Hertz Corp. 6.25% 10/15/2022 -25.1%
  Ally Financial Inc. 3.875% 5/21/2024 -0.8%
  Barclays Bank PLC 5.14% 10/14/2020 -0.1%
General Motors Co.   5.2% 4/1/2045
Occidental Petroleum Corp.   2.7% 8/15/2022
Ford Motor Co.   9% 4/22/2025
Occidental Petroleum Corp.   2.9% 8/15/2024
Sabine Pass Liquefaction LLC   5.625% 3/1/2025
Micron Technology Inc.   4.663% 2/15/2030
Ford Motor Co.   8.5% 4/21/2023
Ally Financial Inc.   4.25% 4/15/2021
Hertz Corp.   6.25% 10/15/2022
Petrobras Global Finance BV   7.375% 1/17/2027
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.24% 1.04% 6.92% -6.45% -5.33% 4.93%
Mining -0.16% 1.29% 16.33% -30.57% -31.29% -22.62%
Construction 0.03% 0.78% 4.53% -8.07% -6.39% 2.42%
Manufacturing -0.18% -0.05% 5.58% -8.09% -7.05% 0.44%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.05% 0.39% 7.35% -5.03% -4.37% 2.71%
Wholesale 0.07% 0.68% 9.87% -10.12% -8.81% -2.54%
Retail -0.02% 0.66% 5.58% -10.58% -9.71% -2.18%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.11% 0.82% 5.11% -8.91% -7.80% -0.41%
Services -0.14% -0.04% 5.96% -8.32% -7.60% 0.81%
Public Administration -0.09% 0.99% 8.34% -6.26% -5.43% 2.55%
Energy -0.07% 2.81% 20.12% -27.03% -27.41% -21.00%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

New Issues Forward Calendar
1. Kraft Heinz Co (USD) 3.875% 5/15/2027 144A (05/04/2020): 1350MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 3.88%.

2. NFP Corp. (USD) 7% 5/15/2025 144A (05/04/2020): 300MM Secured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 7%.

3. Mauser Packaging Solutions Hldg Co. (USD) 8.5% 4/15/2024 144A (05/04/2020): 150MM First Lien Notes, Price at Issuance 99, Yielding 8.8%.

4. NFP Corp. (USD) 7% 5/15/2025 Reg S (05/04/2020): 300MM Secured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 7%.

5. Avis Budget Finance PLC (USD) 10.5% 5/15/2025 144A (05/05/2020): 500MM Secured Notes, Price at Issuance 97, Yielding 11.3%.

6. Avis Budget Finance PLC (USD) 10.5% 5/15/2025 Reg S (05/05/2020): 500MM Secured Notes, Price at Issuance 97, Yielding 11.3%.

1. BRP Inc.: $600MM TL B2 (B1)

2. Championx: $537MM TL

3. Eldorado Resorts Inc./Caesars Entertainment Corp.: $6.4B credit facilities:$1B revolver at Eldorados; $3B seven-year cove-lite TLB due 2027 at Eldorado; $2.4B seven-year cove-lite TLB due 2027 at Caesars Resorts Collection

4. Xperi Corp. : $1.1B seven-year secured covenant lite TLB

5. RSA: $1.425B credit facilities: $75MM revolver; $1B TL; $350MM TL

6. Whole Earth Brands (ACT II GLOBAL ACQUISTION CORP.):: $235 MM credit facilities: $50MM reolver; $185MM term A

7. Logmein Inc.: $3.55B credit facilities: $250MM Revolver; $2.7B first lien TL; $600MM second-lien TL

8. Open Lending LLC: $225MM TLB

9. Xperi Corp. : $1.1B seven-year secured covenant lite TLB

10. Whole Earth Brands (ACT II GLOBAL ACQUISTION CORP.):: $235 MM credit facilities: $50MM reolver; $185MM term A

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: Kraft Heinz issued 1350 MM in Notes.
Top Widening Loans Top Narrowing Loans
Forest City Enterprises Inc. (USD) TLB L+350 12/08/2025
GGP Inc. (USD) TLA2 L+250 08/24/2023
KIK Custom Products Inc. (USD) TLB L+400 05/15/2023
Coty Inc. (EUR) TLA E+175 04/05/2023
EnQuest PLC (USD) RCB L+475 10/01/2021
Orion EngineeRed Carbons Hldgs GmbH (USD) TLB L+200 07/25/2024
Caesars Entertainment Inc. (USD) TL L+200 10/06/2024
Diaverum AB (EUR) TLB L+325 05/26/2024
Concordia International (USD) TL EXIT L+550 09/06/2024
Albany Molecular Research (USD) TL2 L+700 07/28/2025

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:

  • Symantec Corp., Broadcom LTD, Toll Brothers Inc., Cole-Parmer Instrument Co.

OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:

Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:

  • TED spread held below 40 bp (basis points), as of 05/05/2020
  • Net negative capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

 

INVESTMENT GRADE BOND RESEARCH
May 5, 2020
Bond Markets

STOCKS ARE UP AS STATES AND COUNTRIES OPEN UP. OIL UP TO 24.5 A BARREL. AMEX AND SEVERAL OIL COMPANIES EXPECTED TO RELEASE EARNINGS TODAY.  FTSE 100 +1.66%, 10 Year Treasury notes were up 2 basis points. S&P +0.9%, Dow +0.56%, NASDAQ +1.13%.
CORONA VIRUS UPDATE: GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS TO DATE HAS HAD 3.7 MILLION+ CASES AND 258000+ DEATHS. IN THE UNITED STATES THE CORONAVIRUS COUNT IS 1.23 MILLION+ CASES AND 72000+ DEATHS.   Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, United Parcel Service Inc. (USD) 4.875% 11/15/2040 made analysts’ ‘Conviction Buy’ list. (See the chart below for United Parcel Service Inc.  bonds) Pierre Robert
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Boeing Co. 5.15% 5/1/2030 +0.2%
  Boeing Co. 5.93% 5/1/2060 +2.0%
  Boeing Co. 4.875% 5/1/2025 +0.6%
  Boeing Co. 4.508% 5/1/2023 +0.0%
  Boeing Co. 5.705% 5/1/2040 +0.3%
–   Boeing Co. 5.805% 5/1/2050 -0.1%
  Wells Fargo & Co. 5.013% 4/4/2051 -0.9%
  Southwest Airlines Co. 5.25% 5/4/2025 -1.0%
  Southwest Airlines Co. 4.75% 5/4/2023 -1.2%
  Amgen Inc. 2.2% 2/21/2027 -0.2%
Boeing Co.   5.15% 5/1/2030
Boeing Co.   5.805% 5/1/2050
Boeing Co.   5.93% 5/1/2060
Boeing Co.   4.875% 5/1/2025
Wells Fargo & Co.   5.013% 4/4/2051
Boeing Co.   4.508% 5/1/2023
Southwest Airlines Co.   5.25% 5/4/2025
Boeing Co.   5.705% 5/1/2040
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.   3.5% 4/1/2025
Citigroup Inc.   4.412% 3/31/2031
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.20% -0.20% 3.69% -2.03% 0.29% 5.00%
Mining -0.14% 1.05% 8.84% -6.83% -5.36% 3.06%
Construction 0.09% 0.31% 5.45% -4.23% -1.85% 5.53%
Manufacturing -0.20% -0.18% 4.08% -0.17% 1.85% 9.81%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.16% -0.02% 6.18% 0.20% 2.73% 11.89%
Wholesale -0.05% 0.13% 4.83% -2.13% -0.35% 7.76%
Retail -0.14% -0.11% 4.15% 0.56% 2.53% 11.85%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.07% 0.17% 3.27% -0.51% 1.10% 7.73%
Services -0.19% -0.10% 3.72% -0.27% 1.75% 10.10%
Public Administration 0.02% 0.17% 0.35% 2.97% 4.06% 6.61%
Energy -0.12% 1.07% 9.04% -6.77% -5.46% 2.52%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

New Issues New Issues [Continued]
1. New York Life Insurance Co. (USD) 1.1% 5/5/2023 (05/04/2020): 650MM Secured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.979, Yielding 1.11%.

2. Teachers Insurance & Annuity Assoc. Of America (USD) 3.3% 5/15/2050 144A (05/04/2020): 1250MM Subordinated Notes, Price at Issuance 99.867, Yielding 3.31%.

3. Oneok Inc. (USD) 6.35% 1/15/2031 (05/04/2020): 600MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.667, Yielding 6.39%.

4. Oneok Inc. (USD) 7.15% 1/15/2051 (05/04/2020): 300MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.632, Yielding 7.18%.

5. Oneok Inc. (USD) 5.85% 1/15/2026 (05/04/2020): 600MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.943, Yielding 5.86%.

6. Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc. (USD) 2.25% 11/15/2030 (05/04/2020): 750MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.146, Yielding 2.34%.

7. Starbucks Corp. (USD) 1.3% 5/7/2022 (05/04/2020): 500MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.933, Yielding 1.33%.

8. Starbucks Corp. (USD) 3.5% 11/15/2050 (05/04/2020): 1250MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.33, Yielding 3.54%.

9. Altria Group Inc. (USD) 4.45% 5/6/2050 (05/04/2020): 500MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.198, Yielding 4.5%.

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 05/05/2020 participants welcome a $1250MM new corporate-bond offering by Teachers Insurance & Annuity Assoc.
Top Widening Loans Top Narrowing Loans
Forest City Enterprises Inc. (USD) TLB L+350 12/08/2025
GGP Inc. (USD) TLA2 L+250 08/24/2023
KIK Custom Products Inc. (USD) TLB L+400 05/15/2023
Coty Inc. (EUR) TLA E+175 04/05/2023
EnQuest PLC (USD) RCB L+475 10/01/2021
Orion EngineeRed Carbons Hldgs GmbH (USD) TLB L+200 07/25/2024
Caesars Entertainment Inc. (USD) TL L+200 10/06/2024
Diaverum AB (EUR) TLB L+325 05/26/2024
Concordia International (USD) TL EXIT L+550 09/06/2024
Albany Molecular Research (USD) TL2 L+700 07/28/2025

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:

  • Symantec Corp., Broadcom LTD, Toll Brothers Inc., Cole-Parmer Instrument Co.

OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:

Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:

  • TED spread held below 40 bp (basis points), as of 05/05/2020
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

Copyright 2020 Advantage Data Inc. All Rights Reserved. http://www.advantagedata.com

Information in this document should not be regarded as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy bonds or any financial instruments referred to herein. All information provided in this document is believed to be accurate. However, Advantage Data and its sources make no warranties, either express or implied, as to any matter whatsoever, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. Electronic redistribution, photocopying and any other electronic or mechanical reproduction is strictly prohibited without prior written permission from Advantage Data Inc.

 


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